It was quite a crash this week, especially for Ethereum, which didn’t even have a solid bull run, so such a deep crash took me somewhat by surprise.
It appears that bitcoin is nearing the end of its bear-run.
The stochRSI is near its bottom, so I expect that we keep hanging around the current price or a little dip to briefly touch $6100.
RSI we find at 36 today, we could go a little lower, but on the other hand it didn’t peak to > 70 either during its run to $7400 where it peaked at 64.
MACD doesn’t tell us a whole lot, while WR hit rock bottom, and OBV (on balance volume) is also near-bottom.
Finally MTM hangs a little below the middle-line, so that looks good enough as well.
Now let’s look at what the trend lines are telling us:
I pulled one trend line from the bottom back in Oct/Sep 2017, where the price was $2800, touching the wick, and extended it to the latest wick around $5900, and to our surprise, it ends pretty much at the price we’re at now.
When we zoom in a little more we’ll see that the bottom is actually $6100 round.
The other trend line starts at our all-time-high, briefly touching the peak at $8500 to the point where both cross.
This in combination with the overall outcome of our indicators indicates that we’re reached the end of this small bear-run.
If we break below this it’s quite worrisome as then our next target would be around $4800.
Let’s hope we can hold this position instead.
Taking a bit of a wild guess we could set our next bull-run target at $8500 towards the end of October, as you can see below:
As you may understand it’s very hard to predict where the next bull-run takes us, it could get cut short on numerous levels in between, and we also have more than a handful ETF decisions at the end of this month that could change the direction complete.
Nonetheless, our best case scenario would probably be that we hit $8500 by the end of next month.
As for an alternative view
It’s easy to take a biased look, and draw the trend lines the way you want to see them.
Every TA falls prey to that now and then, especially when the action indicates we are going up, with the indicators near its bottom.
With a fresh mind I took another look and came up with the following, which might be even more likely to happen.
In short: This paints a scenario with lower highs, and slightly higher lows, with a break out at the start of November:
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